returning to the presidential race

I haven't had time to update the presidential race fully, so just a short catch-up; I was wrong.

That's right: the prediction in my first blog of no McCain bounce was wrong.

McCain picked up a significant bounce in the polls. It has not translated fully to success in electoral projections, with Obama still running ahead in many, the key being in how the projections use the bounce seen so far. Those that incoporate national numbers show McCain doing the best in terms of electoral projections. Questions remain: McCain has moved ahead in the battleground states? Are projections showing Obama ahead in states simply failing to capture those numbers? Or, are the national tracking polls showing McCain ahead in error, with Obama still holding a small lead?

On the other hand, some of the bounce was either short-lived or a by-product of some other polling feature. If nothing else, many pollsters like to emphasize the volatility of voter preferences. One Gallup tracking poll showed a 10 point lead, a lead which should have translated into a blowout McCain victory. That lead has not shown up in any of the electoral vote projections.

So right now, we do see a closer race than a week ago, with McCain still trailing but definately with a shot to win. A few more days may show movement one way (McCain's poll numbers down) or the other (state projections up), and give me time to write a longer post. Winning the popular vote while losing the electoral vote is a rare situation (three times since the Civil War, and in two of those elections, the winner of the popular vote should have won the electoral vote)