Perhaps a very short version
7 (Eastern Time)
Indiana: Obama won in 2008 by 30,000 votes; typically, Democrats have lost by large margins (Gore by 350,000, Kerry by 500,000). Obama is not expected to win the state, but how close he runs will give a reasonable indicator of national results. Three counties that Obama carried by 172,000: Lake (Gary, generally very Democratic); Marion (Indianapolis, usually competitive, but Obama won by 100,000 votes); Allen (Ft Wayne, usually Republican, but Obama ran close). As a comparison, Kerry and Gore won this three counties by 13,000 votes. Winning big in Indiana is a positive for Romney, but not fatal for Obama as he has stayed out of the state. Losing Indiana for Romney means the race is over.
Virginia: Obama needs to win northern Virginia in order to win. Tim Kaine winning is a good sign for Obama. Romney needs to win Florida, and at least 2 of these 3 states (North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia)
7:30 (Eastern)
Ohio: Obama needs to 2/3 of the votes in Cleveland, needs to win in Toledo and Columbus and probably Dayton and needs to run even (or better) in Cincinnati.
North Carolina: NC has leaned towards Romney. More than 62% in Charlotte is a good number for Obama. Less than that is likely a Romney victory
At this point, if Obama is winning in Ohio, and one of these other states, the race is over and you can stop watching. If Obama is only winning in Ohio, the race is probably over, but Romney could still pull out a victory. A win in NC or VA without Ohio favors Obama, but doesn't clinch the race.
In short, we may know early if Obama has won. We will likely not know until late if Romney has won (and Obama can still win in a late night)
8:00 (Eastern)
Florida: Romney must win Florida. If he loses Florida, the race is over. Obama needs big margins in Miami and Orlando. Romney needs to win the panhandle by a big margin. If either can win in Tampa with a decent margin, that could determine the race.
New Hampshire: NH is important if Obama loses Ohio. If he wins VA or NC without Ohio, then adding NH makes up for it. If Romney wins Ohio-VA-NC-FL, then Obama will need to win NH and run the table on the swing states.
If Romney wins all of the swing states prior to Colorado, he is very likely to win (though it's unlikely that those states will all be called by 9 Eastern for Romney)
9:00 (Eastern)
Wisconsin: Romney is unlikely to win Wisconsin. If he does, it probably means that Paul Ryan should have been on the top of the ticket. It really only matters, if he has done well in the previous states, losing no more than 18 electoral votes of the earlier states. (FL: 29; OH: 18; NC: 15; VA: 13; NH: 4)
Colorado: The Hispanic vote has been shifting Colorado towards the Democrats. A win in CO would at the least offset the loss of Wisconsin. With OH-NC-VA, it will be enough for Obama to win.
If Romney has won everything up until now (except NH), then CO is probably vital for Obama.
10 (Eastern)
The race may not be called at this point, though it may be trending to one candidate or the other, The last two swing states are Nevada and Iowa. Nevada is more like Indiana than a true swing state, in that Obama has consistently led for the entire year. It's why the loss of Ohio, or VA/NC + NH is so troubling for Romney. Given either one of those previous scenarios, it will likely push Obama over the top.
Iowa: Iowa has been closer, but is fundamentally a Democratic state in presidential elections. Polk County, which posts results online fairly rapidly, will give a good read: Obama won the county by more than 30,000 votes. Anything close is likely an Obama victory. A margin of 10,000 - 12,000 will be a close race; under 10,000 means that Obama will likely lose Iowa.
An interesting state to watch will be Arizona. There is a small reason to believe that some Hispanic voters (those who speak English but prefer to use Spanish) are underrepresented and that they could turn the state for Obama. This is unlikely, but if it happens, is a real problem going forward for Republicans. It also means that Obama has a slight chance even if he hasn't achieved one of the earlier scenarios. AZ has one advantage for Obama - he only needs NV-IA (not NH) to win. The difference between AZ and WI is this. WI is almost certainly going to vote for Obama and AZ is almost certainly going to vote for Romney, but while WI is not trending Republican, AZ is trending Democratic. It's just possible that it is getting there eight years earlier than we expect.
Here are the Obama victory conditions
FL
Ohio + one of (VA-NC-IA-NV-CO)
NC + Ohio or VA or CO or two of (CO-NH-IA-NV)
VA+ Ohio or NC or two of (CO-NH-IA-NV)
CO-NH-IA-NV
Likely to be 303 for Obama; could go as high as 347.
From electoral-vote.com Folks, you gotta go where the data takes you, not your heart. These are people who are going to look foolish in the morning (Rove is understandable because he's making millions off backing a Republican, but the others are supposed to be more knowledgeable about these things
| Pundit | Obama | Romney |
| Dick Morris | 213 | 325 |
| George Will | 217 | 321 |
| Michael Barone | 223 | 315 |
| Dean Chambers | 227 | 311 |
| Andrew Beyer | 254 | 284 |
| Karl Rove | 259 | 279 |
| Ben Domenech | 260 | 278 |
| Leslie Sanchez | 263 | 275 |
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